Derive expected future ibnr numbers

Expected future ibnr numbers are calculated from the additive ibnr model and the exposure.

Usage

get_expected_ibnr_numbers(additive_ibnr_model, exposure)

Arguments

additive_ibnr_model

Dataframe as a result of get_additive_ibnr_model().

exposure

Dataframe that must contain one row for each desired origin year and the columns Origin_year and Exposure.

Value

Expected ibnr numbers matrix with one row per origin year and one column per development year.

Examples

add_mod <- data.frame(Dev_year = 1:5,
                      Ibnr_numbers = c(100, 44, 15, 0, 2),
                      Sum_of_exposures = c(42000, 40000, 38000, 37000, 35000),
                      Factor = c(0.00238, 0.0011, 0.00039, 0, 0.00006))
exp <- data.frame(Origin_year = 2020:2023,
                  Exposure = c(1000, 1200, 1500, 1900))
get_expected_ibnr_numbers(add_mod, exp)
#>         2     3 4     5
#> 2020 0.00 0.000 0 0.060
#> 2021 0.00 0.000 0 0.072
#> 2022 0.00 0.585 0 0.090
#> 2023 2.09 0.741 0 0.114